The Murray State Racers travel to Nashville tomorrow to face the Tennessee State Tigers. The game is crucial for both teams.
The Racers are currently 5-4 in OVC play and are tied for fifth while TSU is 4-7 and in sole possession of ninth place. Murray State won the last meeting on Jan. 8 at the RSEC 75-71. But the two teams have split the last four games they have played in Nashville.
The Sagarin Predictor Ratings make the Racers a 6 1/2 point favorite. And in their last two games the Racers have outperforrmed their SP ratings. Of course those two games were at home. In their previous two games at Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State they outperformed their rating against JSU and underperformed against Tech. The Racers need to win to improve their chances of getting a home game in the first round of the confeerence tournament.
TSU has lost three straight and six of their last seven. They desperately need a win. Otherwise they risk missing the tournament altogether. In their last two games they lost by 18 at Eastern Kentucky and by 21 at Morehead.
Murray State will have to deal with a layoff. They have not played in 11 days due to an ice storm that devastated the area.
Early in the year the Racers lost only to teams that played excellent defense. But they lost their shooting touch for a while and dropped games to three etams who allow opponents an effective field goal percentage greater than 50.
The common perception is that they have turned that around because they beat Eastern Illinois and Southeast Missouri handily. But they didn't shoot well in either of those games as they made just 37.3 percent of their shots against EIU (29.4 percent from three-point range) and 43.5 percent against SEMO (29.6 percent from three-point range).
I predict they will snap out of their shooting slump at TSU though. The Tigers' opponents have posted an effective field goal percentage of 51,2 and the last time these two teams played the Racers hit 48 percent of their shots and 33.3 percent of their three-pointers.
The Pomeroy statistical model predicts at 69-63 Murray State victory. I think the margin is too high and the score is too low. Last year in Nashville the final score was 75-70 and the year before it was 86-83 in overtime.
Look for this one to go to the wire with a final score in the mid to upper 70's.
The OVC Report on MSU...
Murray State did not play a game last week and has not played since topping Southeast Missouri on Saturday, Jan. 24...The Racers were scheduled to play UT Martin this past Saturday, but the ice storm that moved through the Murray area forced the postponement of that game...Those two teams will now play on Monday, Feb. 23...The men’s team was able to escape the Murray State campus (with was without power and water) and workout in Clarksville at Austin Peay...Overall the Racers have won three of four as the team is 5-4 in OVC play which puts them in fourth place...The Racers currently rank 27th nationally in free throw percentage (74.0%)...Murray State will start a busy week as they will play their next three games on the road...On Wednesday night the Racers will play at Tennessee State and that will be followed by a game at rival Austin Peay on Saturday...That three-game road swing ends next Monday at Eastern Illinois.
The OVC Report on TSU...
Tennessee State went on the road and dropped games at league-leading Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky last week...The Tigers are now 1-11 on the road this season, with the lone win coming on Dec. 6 at Southeast Missouri...Tennessee State is 4-7 in Conference play, which places the Tigers in eighth place in the standings...The week began with the loss to Morehead State in a game that aired on ESPNU...Sophomore Gerald Robinson led the way with 23 points, including hitting 13-of-17 from the free throw line; he also had four assists and three steals...Freshman Parker Smith knocked down 3-pointers and scored 17 points...Two nights later Jerrell Houston led the team in scoring, netting 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting...Darius Cox and Smith each added 10 for TSU...Tennessee State will come home to play twice in the Gentry Center this week, a place where they are 5-4 this season...The week begins with Murray State on Wednesday night and continues with UT Martin on Saturday.