This is a hard game to figure because TSU has been so inconsistent this season. When the two teams played in Murray back on January 8th the Racers won 75-71 but when they played at TSU a month later the Tigers quit after falling behind early in the second half and Murray won 88-58.
Indeed, it's fair to say the team quit on Cy Alexander who was fired after an ugly 100-73 loss to Tennessee-Martin. That loss capped a stretch of seven losses in eight games, four of which were by at least 18 points.
But since Alexander was dismissed the Tigers are 6-0 and are playing much better. Two changes in strategy have factored in this run. Jerrell Houston is playing almost exclusively in low post instead of spending a lot of time on the perimeter. And Gerald Robinson is playing primarily at two-guard instead of at the point.
Three of those games were at home and three were on the road so we'll ignore home court advantage. The average Sagarin rating for those six teams that TSU beat was 64.86 and they won by an average of 8.1 points. That would give them a rating of 72.96 for that six game stretch.
Murray State has a Sagarin rating of 73.41. Add 3.81 points for the home court advantage and you get MSU at 77.21 and TSU at 72.96.
There are two complicating factors though.
TSU has to be embarrased by the way they played in Nashville the last time these two teams met so you can expect them to play with every ounce of determination they can muster.
And Murray State's starting two-guard Tyler Holloway will not be at 100 percent. Holloway dislocated his shoulder against Eastern Kentucky on Saturday and today head coach Billy Kennedy said he was still "quite sore." Holloway has been the team's most consistent outside threat this season and if he can't shoot without pain or the fear that his shoulder will pop out that hurts the Racers' chances.
He is expected to play and start regardless so although it may have an impact on his effectiveness it shouldn't affect the Racers already short bench.
The guess here is that Murray State wins a squeaker. Make it MSU by one.